With supply falling relative to demand, analyst predicts 5-7 percent per annum rise in diamond prices
With rough diamond producer facing a seemingly inevitable decline in production from 2019, and demand for polished diamonds in developing markets like China rising fast, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets says that diamond prices are already up 7 percent, and they will continue to rise by 5 percent to 7 percent per annum for the next few years.
Speaking to The Telegraph newspaper, mining analyst Edward Sterck added that when diamond production begins to fall in five years’ time, price rises could become even more aggressive.
Right now, its is scenario that is unlikely to change. There currently are only about 30 significant diamond mines are in production worldwide, and a major mine hasn’t been found since the 1990s.
“They’re not large deposits compared to the deposits for other commodities. Even once you find one, there’s no guarantee it’s diamondiferous and even if it is, there’s no guarantee that it’s economic,” Sterck said.
BMO Capital Markets is a member of BMO Financial Group, one of the largest diversified financial services providers in North America with $532 billion total assets and more than 45,500 employees.
Also speaking to The Telegraph, Stephen Lussier, executive director of De Beers, said that, while his company is expanding to maintain production, keeping worldwide diamond production levels stable is unlikely. “Many of the world’s diamond mines aren’t getting younger, and as they get older, they tend to get less productive. We need to find new things in order to simply maintain current production,” he said.
“It looks like the world is getting to the end of that period of diamond production expansion,” Lussier stated.
China is the major driver of growth in demand. Only 14 years, all of Asia accounted for 8 percent of global diamond jewellery sales, and by 2012 China and Hong Kong alone held a 13 percent share. That is forecast to increase to 18 percent by 2017.
